September 29 2007
"The Conservative Voice" says "There Is Something in the Air over Syria." That would be the I$raeli air force, which led a secret attack on Syria September 6 for reasons still not made public. Now we need to understand the forces of imperialist militarism, the forces with no reputation for an ability to make a peace or even keep from striking a country while they say they mean peace.
Supposing a hydrogen bomb
Supposing that this is not really a case of missile launchers for Hezbollah or something even less substantial, we can actually assume the opposite for argument's sake. If northern Korea actually were more advanced than reported, perhaps it gave the Syrians a hydrogen bomb. Then I$raeli commandos took it and destroyed everything in the vicinity. Then we would expect many various "moderate" forces to be embarrassed, such as Russia.
Now I$rael can release the truth or not. Of course, the world public has no way of knowing where weapons of mass destruction come from, because inspections are done in secret. Iraq's weapons of mass destruction showed up in a UN weapons' inspector's filing cabinet(1) and the CIA infiltrated previous weapons inspections visits to Iraq.(2)
When released, the exact details will likely not be believed by the international proletariat, especially coming from I$rael. What matters is that I$rael's story points toward its intentions.
Releasing a story that I$rael got Syria's hydrogen bomb immediately ramps up public opinion in I$rael, partly in the united $tates and also the rest of the West. Analysts have been quick to point out that the Arab League might be divided if I$rael goes to war over the question.
Ironically, in this scenario, the Western economy still melts down, possibly before I$rael attacks again. Speculation is setting in in the price of oil: "Oil inventories are 1.3 percent below year-ago levels, but oil's price is more than $20 a barrel higher. . . And high oil and gas prices are depressing demand."(3)
The U.$. economy was already weak before the latest rounds of I$raeli war with Syria and Iran. Now one of the more militant splinters from the PLO says I$rael is planning war on Syria.(4)
Simultaneously, Lebanon is aflame with a political assassination and the coming disorder from a president stepping down and an election boycott by Hezbollah.(5)
The logical possibilities
If we presume that the secret does not come out till at least after the Korean Summit of October 2-4, then there are a few possibilities.
Any nuclear activity involving Korea casts a cloud over U.$. talks with Korea, which become seven-party talks. Talk about being taken off the "terrorism list" becomes meaningless as Congress would dig in its heels and Democrats would be inclined to pot-shot opportunism. Already we have seen Congress put a hold on a trade treaty with southern Korea.(6)
If the nuke material obtained is junky enough it will cast doubt on the whole story, as I$raeli spies and nuke inspectors have already been inside northern Korea. On the other hand, the u.$. and I$raeli publics went for the weapons of mass destruction story for Iraq one time already.
If this were not a good-cop/bad-cop routine, we would see the former Finance Minister Netanyahu preparing public opinion for change in I$rael. We do not see that. This is what MIM would expect, the impossibility of reasoning with settler politicians. As a former Finance Minister, Netanyahu must have certain capabilities to understand what is happening. The appeal of war and land are difficult to oust and it's not an accident apart from the settler question that land is part of Stalin's definition of nation. It means that land is its own factor in the political struggle apart from the class structure. Those attacking MIM for talking about settlers are not real upholders of Stalin and they tend to be the same people with illusions about an imminent white pseudo-worker revolt, when in actual fact, "Allah is coming" has more reality, because the people who believe in Allah are already on the move.
More I$raelis thought it was good for Netanyahu to leak the September 6 attack than keep quiet.(7) That means Netanyahu made political head- way with the remark, because combined, his Labor and Kadima opponents still outnumber him. In that situation, we can expect settler politics to keep coming to the fore. So all eyes are on I$rael, Netanyahu included.
In Korea, even if I$rael got Syria's hydrogen bomb, there is nothing stopping Roh's successor from campaigning against conscription. Materials in Syria are not a threat to the southern Koreans seeking to be a 51st state. Some Koreans will even take pride in northern Korea's abilities. Getting Korean troops out of Iraq would make another good issue. MIM suspects that Netanyahu's comments have already endangered Korean troops in Iraq, just when Roh was thinking about extending their stay.
In this situation, I$rael's card needs to be forced into the open, played soon. There is no point in building up illusions in the international proletariat about a peaceful united $tates and I$rael only to get down the road and have Congress scotch a Korea agreement and I$rael bomb Syria and Iran.
If Korea gave Syria a hydrogen bomb, it will serve as inspiration globally on the reality of internationalism. At the same time, the I$raeli attack will heighten the vigilance of the Islamic peoples in particular.
In MIM's book, I$rael is best modeled after the French occupation of Algeria and apartheid South Africa. Le Pen in France is an enduring manifestation of French settlerism. I$raeli settlerism is not much different and Algeria is similar territory.
In MIM's estimation of politics, we have talked about U.$. settlers and the labor aristocracy for 20 years and Zimbabwe's and South Africa's for years before that. Against MIM, it can be said that we expected apartheid would still be standing till about 2012. There are also other significant international actors who believe a two-state solution is possible. The best solution is for MIM to prove wrong in the Mideast. However, settler intransigence is an excellent basis for revolution in the oppressed nations. MIM sees nothing wrong with political polarization. It's not as if the u.$. and I$raeli publics could hate their opponents anymore than they already do for any practical purposes. A few steps down the road off the "Axis of Evil" and northern Korea is already being sent back.
Road map to nowhere
Amid all this, Abbas unwisely delayed. He announced that there would be a meeting in Washington, November 15 and he has with I$rael's urging downgraded expectations for that meeting. Now he is looking to have a peace treaty by May, 2008--plenty of time for details to amount to war.(8) Even that, I$rael objected to as too soon.(9)
Bush had called for a "summit" just a few days ago and now it looks like I$rael got its way with Abbas for an "international meeting." The difference is that I$rael's reputation will be less damaged by war than if a summit were going on.
There is still time for I$rael itself to decide that now is the time for a substantial peace--before a Western economic meltdown, before Amerikans decide the Iraq and 9/11 stories were wrong and while U.$. geopolitical position is still strong relative to where it will be by the time rancor cools off from revealing the hydrogen bomb I$rael found. There is a certain level of violence in any youthful population. I$rael can tell tall tales about how its piecemeal approach to security shows that Palestinians are so exceptionally violent or it can realize that moving quickly toward an overall settlement is the best shot to reduce such violence. I$rael is still on course for more settler-based wars; nonetheless, MIM stands at this moment with those trying to change that.