November 7 2007
Whether Bush should resign because he is as loony as some websites are saying regarding World War III is not up to MIM. MIM does not sit in Congress and nor is MIM in charge of militaries in other countries that have to decide on technical questions such as where such and such residue came from and what it is. So MIM cannot answer the overall question posed by what was going on with the nuclear weapons in September. If the "persynal affront" theory is true, then Bush should resign. We cannot have people in charge of nuclear weapons who are easily thrown by public taunts.
If we leave aside the Syria question, MIM will predict Amerikan politics based on what it knows of partisan proclivities.
The Attorney General nominee Mukasey suggested to Democrats to put waterboarding in the FISA bill as torture. Because Bush needs the FISA bill, it is a Democratic Party chance to put in something for its domestic agenda that neutralizes its choice of emotional campaign issues in 2008. The Democrats will choose something that favors its base while also appealing to elements of the Republican base. The choice of issue to attach to the FISA will be aimed at something a solid portion of the Republican base would not ordinarily allow. Intelligence types should not mind as long as support for state secrets happens somehow. Not January 20, 2009--the imperialists will make a deal for till 20 or 30 years hence for everything connected to the can of worms.
On the whole, since 2006, Republicans are playing defense and should acknowledge that. Vetoing spending bills is defense to appeal to fiscal conservatives.
Imperialist unity being what it is though, Democrats will allow the Republicans to earn their way onto the offensive, if they can. Democrats will hold symbolic votes against appropriations for foreign affairs, but they will give Bush what he wants on foreign affairs. If Bush uses what he has well, he will end up on the offensive again.
Fortunately, this article can be short because on foreign affairs, there is not much for Amerikans to look at. Amerikans are not really policy or issue-oriented. They prefer style, biography and emotion.
Democrats did not use the nuclear option in politics when discussing Korea. They took the bipartisan road with Bill Richardson helping. The Democrats can say Bush caused northern Korea to get nuclear weapons. It will be a slight argument for the Democrats.
Regarding Guantanamo Bay, Democrats will mobilize college-educated people to concern themselves with the Amerikan image abroad. On the other hand, at least 30% of the public is thrilled with Guantanamo Bay. In 2008, Democrats may pick up a higher percentage of college- educated votes. Ron Paul is making headway among military people that may eat into chances of Republicans presenting themselves the same way as in 2004.
On Iraq, Democrats will get their big advantage that will help them in 2008 among independent voters, the third of people who suspect the Iraq War is being run ineptly. At the end of 2008, we expect troop withdrawals by Bush to help the Republicans reclaim their base of voters that is now drifting.
Regarding 9/11, Republicans will be aggressive but as McCain said, there will be a little swiftboating with regard to Giuliani's emergency response if Giuliani ends up the nominee. In 2004, Kerry's military service strength came under some attack.
The fact that Pat Robertson endorsed Giuliani says that social conservatives may not play much role in this election, except maybe as the vice-president selection.
On the Middle East, if there is a peace and Palestinian statehood, then we expect an Iran treaty to follow soon after. In that case, the imperialists will agree to allow Republicans to claim credit. The unity may come with the price of having the Bush administration admit the surveillance question was about something unprofessional--just that much of an admission to put it to rest and allow Democrats to talk about it perhaps with reminders of the attorney firings.
If the Mideast is still murky or going into increased turmoil, we expect Republicans will run their campaigns against Iran. The regional disorder will put domestic national security questions into the past and Democrats will find enough to debate. Executive privilege will not be a central issue as few understand it or care, but neither camp will care if it comes up.
Pakistan is one last wild card for 2008. Democrats have a slight plus with the smaller exploiters in calling for more warmongering against Afghanistan and Pakistan. This may be a moderate advantage of the Democrats if the situation does not heat up much more and become totally unpredictable.
Although the imperialist class is a group of people, politicians are individuals with private interests. If there is turbulence away from well-worn grooves it will be on account of individual miscalculations.