Bush says it again:Troops in Iraq may increaseby mim3@mim.org and mousnonya On May 24th, Bush went on TV to prepare the public for the weeks and months ahead in Iraq. "'Our commanders had estimated that a troop level below 115,000 would be sufficient at this point in the conflict,' Bush said. 'Given the recent increase in violence, we will maintain our troop level at the current 138,000 as long as necessary.' "If commanders need more troops, Bush said, 'I will send them.'"(1) On the same day, Democrat Senator Joe Lieberman generally backed the president by saying on CNN that this war in Iraq was the "test of a generation." Instead of saying the wars created more hatred for u.$. imperialism, Lieberman said there would be more attacks on U.$. soil if the troops do not stay in Iraq. Meanwhile, Senators Hillary Clinton (D-NY) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC) called for a "larger military." Hillary Clinton also expressed doubts about how to fund it but said there was no choice.(2) Graham probably sees war as a job option for his state's rural white youth, since South Carolina has lost so many jobs but refuses to change anything. The multiple prisons torture scandals by U.$. troops in Iraq and Afghanistan mean that other imperialists at the United Nations have a better bargaining position than before. Right now the U.$. rulers are trying to appear flexible in public. We believe this appearance is mostly aimed at U.$. public opinion, not really other heads of state. Bill Clinton's top diplomat, the then Secretary of State Madelaine Albright said she appreciated that as of May 24th Bush recognized the value of the United Nations. Her position does two things: 1) it stresses the differences between Republicans and Democrats as the election in November approaches; 2) it shows that there is bipartisan unity if Bush is willing to fan the illusions of the Democratic voters. MIM has predicted that there will be a draft after the election unless there is a huge military victory by the Iraqis or other Middle East fighters before that or a desperately radical anti-draft struggle in the upcoming months. Right now it may seem like chances are better than ever to get the united $tates out of Iraq: 1) Bush is taking a beating internationally and even somewhat in the united $tates; 2) Bush and Blair went to the UN with a proposal to give UN blessings to the occupation. We stress to our readers that it is true that the united $tates is taking a beating militarily and in global public opinion, and it is true that Bush faces an elections soon, but going to the UN may be aimed at consolidating U.$. public opinion on the need for the draft. The imperialists would like to say they "tried" at the UN and failed, so now they need a draft. (From MIM's point of view, it does not matter whether Uncle $am chooses ruin through deficit-spending for a bloated military or the draft. Either way, U.$. imperialism is headed for an ash-heap. The more the Iraqis and Afghans fight, the less effective recruiting mercenaries will be.) The imperialists are going to play the UN card. Another card could be the Arab League, the association of Arab government lackeys. On May 23rd, the Arab lackeys floated the idea of landing troops in Iraq as part of an international, UN-backed force.(3) Miracle diplomacy would put Arab troops on the ground in Iraq and Bush could crow in time for November's election. We at MIM believe it is more likely that all of this is just to show the U.$. public that Bush "tried" and to give Senators Clinton and Lieberman all the excuse they need to support more aggressive designs. One place the u.$. imperialists probably will not find many troops, except for periodic symbolic reshufflings that do not last long is England. 66% of the voters there oppose sending even 3000 more troops to Iraq.(4) U.$. imperialists are so short of manpower that they are unable to pursue further offensive operations against Iran, Syria or northern Korea. Four facts about enemy troop movements and "force structure" show why the imperialists are already stretched to their limits without a draft in the current political operating environment. First, one third of the U.S. Army in Iraq --three enemy divisions, about 50,000 men -- freshly rotated out of Iraq, are currently classified as "unfit to fight."(5) Until equipment is replaced or repaired--which will take several months--these troops will be unavailable for overseas deployment. Reservists and national guardsmen replaced these unfit enemy divisions in Iraq. With less training and inferior equipment these soldiers will perform less effectively. Second, the enemy has recently decided to rotate soldiers out of southern Korea and into Iraq.(6) This is not so that the soldiers on the Korean front can get "real world" battle experience. It is just that the enemy is desperate enough to risk one front--Korea--for another front--Iraq. Third, the United $tates has begun looking for members of the Individual Ready Reserve. The IRR are those soldiers who have served on active or reserve duty in the last 8 years. They are subject to mobilization on notice even if they are not drilling with active guard or reserve units.(7) While active duty discharges have been regularly refused for some time under the "stop loss" program, activating the IRR is the last step the government can take to increase its troop supply short of instituting a draft. Fourth, the United $tates is also planning to send its opposition force training units ("OpFor") to Iraq.(8) OpFor are the very best soldiers in the Army. Their job ordinarily is to train new units to the highest standards possible. These units' going to Iraq mean that newly trained draftees will not have a clue about how to fight. So the short term gain (some of the best soldiers in the Army in Iraq) results in long term loss (untrained draftees getting whacked like flies next year and their buddies then fragging the officers--just like Vietnam). [Fragging refers to the killing of officers by men who do not want to fight or are otherwise peeved.] These four facts: Exhaustion of men and equipment, troop rotation from Korea, IRR mobilization, and deployment of OpFor units to Iraq all indicate that the United $tates does not have adequate manpower for its schemes and will institute the draft after the election--regardless of which imperialist faction seizes state power. The draft is just one more way that youth, even in imperialist countries, are oppressed by capitalism. U.$. imperialists have realized that they will get no support from German or French imperialists or even from the UN U.$. imperialists snubbed their imperial co- conspirators before the UN. Even partners in crime have some self respect. So the United $tates will institute a draft: budgetary problems also show this to be the case. Capitalism encourages a "live for the moment" attitude. This fact poisons our enemies' thinking about war. It is one more reason why MIM has strategic confidence in the global proletariat. The imperialists are making mistake after mistake in this war(9), because they have overestimated their own strength and cannot admit the truth--that their pigdom is built on the sweat and blood of stolen Third World labor. Without even considering the insane mistreatment of prisoners and abuse of civilians documented in earlier MIM Notes articles it is clear that our enemy is overstretched and making mistakes. Compound their miscalculations of forces with their atrocities against the Iraqi people and the result is clear: the imperialists will lose their war in Iraq. The quicker they are defeated the happier we will all be. These facts confirm MIM's long standing prediction that the imperialist countries, desperate for Third World resources, will find themselves increasingly overstretched and bogged down in protracted hot wars for resources in the Third World. The enemy is making serious mistakes and compounding them daily. But our victory will not be quick: Sadly, the imperialists will kill many proletarians before the error of their ways hits home. We must minimize our losses to the greatest extent possible by organizing resistance to the war. Oppose imperialism now: the life you save might be your own.
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