The risk of nuclear war has existed ever since the united states dropped atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. It persists even today, despite claims that since the end of the cold war it has gone away.
For example, the recent conflicts between the united states and Russia over Kosovo threatened to turn into a war between nuclear powers. At one point during the U.S./NATO bombing of Kosovo, Russian President Boris Yeltsin said to the Amerikans, "Don't push us to military. Otherwise, there will be a European war for sure and possibly a world war." The chief of the Russian General Staff was more explicit. "If the question is to be or not to be for Russia," he said, "we must use everything we have in the armed forces, including nuclear weapons."
These statements cannot be dismissed as bluster or posturing, since they were backed up by actions. As soon as the Amerikans and their cronies started bombing Yugoslavia, Russia pulled out of a program for a joint communications center with the united states, which would have eased the risk of accidental nuclear due to misinformation. Then in April, Yeltsin approved a program to modernize Russia's tactical nuclear weapons, which had been taken out of service several years earlier. So the conflict in Kosovo - one of those persistent small wars caused by imperialist powers and local capitalists - brought the humyn species a small step closer to extinction via nuclear catastrophe.
Furthermore, the threat of accidental nuclear war may even be greater than the threat of conscious war. The August issue of The Progressive details five instances over the last 30 years when nuclear missiles were almost launched as a result of mechanical failure or humyn error - the most recent near-miss being in 1995. In one case, an apparent attack by thousands of Russian missiles turned out to be a training tape playing for a senator on an inspection tour.
If there is only a one percent chance of nuclear annihilation each year, then after 50 years the probability of surviving is 60.5%. (To put it another way, you can probably run across a busy freeway once and not get hit, but if you keep doing it, you're bound to be maimed or killed by a speeding car.) By the standards of the Iroquois people who do not do anything that would have negative implications for people seven generations from now, a one percent chance of nuclear war would mean only a 17.2% chance of humyn survival 175 years from now.
We must popularize the fact that nuclear war is inevitable under the current imperialist economic and social system, in order to mobilize the people inside u.s. borders against that system. Imperialism forces powers like the united states to conquer - by force of arms, if necessary - new markets. It is also characterized by a preponderance of investment in parasitic, non-productive, but immensely profitable sectors like the weapons industry. (Of note, even some Pentagon types seem to think that Amerika's nuclear arsenal serves no good purpose, but lobbying by the technicians and companies who make their living off of nuclear research and kooky schemes like SDI ensures the preservation of the arsenal.)
While exposing militarism and imperialism as the fundamental problems behind the threat of nuclear war, we must also combat other dangerous snake-oil remedies to the problem. For example, while pointing out that conflicts between the united states and nuclear powers like Russia and capitalist China may lead to nuclear annihilation, we must also carry out anti-chauvinist and anti-jingoist propaganda. The threat of nuclear war will not be averted by ensuring that only the united states has nuclear weapons, as some reactionaries argue - in fact, the only time nuclear weapons were ever used, only one power (ahem, the united states) had them. In terms of the size of its arsenal and its historic willingness to use the BOMB as a threat (it did so in both Korea and Vietnam), the united states has always been the main danger when it comes to nuclear war.
The fact that it is legal to sell arms for profit means that there are very rich people with an incentive to instigate war. They act through their lobbyists in legislatures and executive branches but also behind-the-scenes stoking up war hatreds. For this reason alone, we must be rid of capitalism, and replace it with socialism, which outlaws production for profit. If socialism could reduce the causes of war just one percent each year, it could prove to buy us the time we need as a species to learn to cooperate.
Riding roughshod everywhere, U.S. imperialism has made itself the enemy of the people of the world and has increasingly isolated itself. Those who refuse to be enslaved will never be cowed by the atom bombs and hydrogen bombs in the hands of the U.S. imperialists. The raging tide of the people of the world against tile U.S. aggressors is irresistible. Their struggle against U.S. imperialism and its lackeys will assuredly win still greater victories. - Mao Zedong, "Statement Supporting the Panamanian People's Just Patriotic Struggle Against U.S. Imperialism," (January 12, 1964).